The last Breakfast News of 2023 brought thoughts leaders from across the talent space with viewpoints spanning macroeconomic, technological, and societal trends which will impact not just students as they navigate the transition from education into employment, but experienced talent as well. Structural and economic factors are perhaps contributing to siloed conversations regarding what the future holds for early careers as we currently know it...
Futurologist KD Adamson ended the 72nd GTI Breakfast News with "The future is not somewhere that we go, but something we create". Her viewpoint is that we have historically prioritised systems over people. Technology has then been created to reenforce the system. But Gen Z and Gen Alpha are rejecting this in favour of the individual and ‘all lives matter’.
Historical hierarchies are being challenged in a ‘New Morale Age’ in which people are often prepared to compromise on pay if they are offered a chance to change or reject what they see is unethical or immoral. This can only be a good thing to tackle world issues with a period of unparalleled societal creativity and reinvention.
The New Moral Age is causing businesses to be much clearer on why they exist and what their purpose is. Incoming Gen Z and Gen A talent demand authenticity and transparency.
We are experiencing an irreversible global trend of an ageing population and workforce, which is a combination of several factors:
Lower birth rates –fewer young people moving into the workforce, and they are also currently and on track to have fewer children, with 100,000 less births last year than 10 years ago in the UK. That about 15% less young people coming through the system.
People are living and working longer – 10% of the world’s population globally are currently 65 years old but this will rise to 16% by 2050. There has also been an increase in 55–64-year-olds working in the OECD nations, which stands at 2 in 3, up 8% on a decade ago.
Retirement age is increasing – in OEDCs, twenty-three of the thirty-eight nations have increased retirement ages in recent years, with the norm now 70 years old.
So, what does this mean?
Well, if we are to see an older workforce then there is going to be a need for employers to instil flexible modes of working to accommodate a multi-generational workforce and changing life circumstances and milestones. A healthy, agile, and accessible work environment will become a priority for employers. More Gen Z (and Gen A) employees will manage older Millennials and Gen X colleagues as the latter continue to work beyond current retirement age projections. However, this older working group of 55–64-year-olds are reporting a problem in keeping their skills up to date and have less access to high quality jobs.
It is now more than likely that we will see lengthier careers overlayed with skills needs changing at a greater rate than ever, leading to career changes not just once or twice, but three, four, five times or more. LinkedIn’s Skills Report 2023 shows that UK skillsets for existing jobs are due to change by 65% by 2030, having only changed 25% since 2015. There is likely to be a real demand for lifelong learning and a need for employers to provide job mobility and training or risk attrition or competitive disadvantage.
Young people learn, choose and transition into employment differently now than their predecessors. Rather than completing a linear transition between full-time education and full-time employment, young people are now more likely to experience protracted, non-linear transitions as they undertake various forms of both study and employment. Due to the emergence of the gig economy and the scarcity of opportunities for full-time employment, young people face lengthy delays in securing economic independence from their parents.
Much is written on this and was not repeated at Breakfast News. Except to say that early careers roles are changing at a similar pace to roles requiring experience. GTI’s analysis of early careers roles data, show that job titles rising include:
Time to investigate what new talent personas, who will recruit and upskill them and what this means for the term ‘early careers?
With a drop in demand for low-skilled workers combined with an exponential rise in demand for high-skilled workers alongside an ageing population, early careers, as it is now, might be a less sustainable model.
We are seeing some employers transition from early careers to so called ‘total talent’ or ‘early in a new career’ in which all intakes without direct experience of the role are considered early-in-career and managed by the early careers and HR function.
It consists of 2 core aspects:
If employers are to broaden remits of recruitment and development teams to embed a ‘total talent’ approach, we see three structures emerging:
Extending early careers teams to incorporate more DEI & ESG-driven programmes from across the business, under one-roof. These programmes variety can be persona/criteria led, be it ex-Veterans, Returners or Reskilling non-traditional talent coming from non-educational recent pathways like school and university. These are still in part though, restricting some talent personas in being eligible for some programmes and pathways based on education and diversity demographic backgrounds, further creating ‘Boxed Idealisms’.
However, being delivered in a way to leverage talent pools and process Early Careers team would usually manage (and reject), makes for a compelling case of being managed under one roof internally.
Some employers have decided to remove the multi-named and branded pathways into the company but having a singular entry point, with no barriers to entry be in educational, demographical, or cyclical. The idea here is to have differing roles and programmes under a parent programme usually named something non-early careers synonymous – to invite a broader range of applications. Many have set up with an in-house custom-created training framework and community management initiates.
This model can be truly diverse and accessible and scalable into multiple departments and occupations. Some Early Careers employers have de-badged their programme identities as graduate or apprentice in favour of a branded concept (such as an Academy) whereby they attach the right skilled programme be it in-house training, external partner or leveraging the apprenticeship levy. The latter however does reintroduce some parameters of eligibility to consider.
Sees the introduction of Junior Lateral hiring at entry-lower levels of the talent pyramid, sitting between early careers and experienced hire. This method can complement existing early careers teams currently in place and be leveraged for non-cyclical, non-apprentice standard or skills-based hiring.
Education criteria are removed from screening and more emphasis placed on the skills, knowledge, and brief experience (sometimes) of the individual. The also supports pressures experienced hire teams face, when being tasked with hiring mid-senior level talent with more experience but struggling to meet EDI and sustainable talent objectives.
We see the bridge between Early Careers and Experienced Hires join closer, to enable less skilled or ineligible talent from either talent pools join in entry or junior lateral roles. Often, the roles are reliant more on candidate needing existing/transferable knowledge and/or skills to hit the ground running as they have much of the context given to Early Careers new joiners. This method can also help to corner the business in demand planning when EC is deemed a risk or too long to see ROI. Or, where EH teams struggle to find enough supply of talent with hard to fill demand.
We believe that we will see other variations of these models, but the key might be to consider the benefits of different approaches and consider what a bold move now might create competitive advantage rather than becoming a follower and being perceived as traditional in approach. The level of stakeholder buy-in and implications on roles and budget allocations could require a long lead-time.
Skills-based hiring is looking likely to become the standard way to hire. LinkedIn’s Skills Report 2023 showed that 88% of UK employers recognise that highly skilled candidates are being filtered out on application because they lack traditional credentials. These credentials being educational for entry-level positions and experience for mid-senior levels. Interestingly, 54% of ISE employers expect to move to evaluating candidates based on their skills, rather than education or experience.
We also saw how behavioural (or “human”) skills are rising in importance, given the disruption already seen with generative AI performing aspects of technical tasks (from coding to language translation and marketing copy). Will we see the rise of the “Chief Behavioural Officer” role and might this sit within the “early in careers” function as a way of supporting new joiners and career switchers?
Students’ perceptions of their skills and experiences in using them do not always align with what employers perceive them to be. Communication being a great example, as illustrated in GTI Cibyl’s Graduate UK Study 2023 compared to ISE’s employer study. Skill-based hiring is one of the factors leading universities and colleges to embed more experiential learning activities into the student experience pre-employment. It also encourages employers to consider their current selection and assessment approaches and consider things like “foundational skills” which help build other skills in life-long learning such as Cappfinity and GTI’s Skills for Skills framework
The benefits of taking a skills-based approach to hiring have shown quantity and quality of talent across sectors and roles will improve. LinkedIn’s Skills Report 2023 stating that on average you would experience a ten-fold rise in volumes, with McKinsey reinforcing that this method is five times more predictive of job performance than hiring for education and more than two times more predictive than hiring for work experience. It also supports social mobility in the ongoing move away from grades and work experience as selection criteria. As a practical aspect of skills-based hiring, 67% of ISE members use online psychometric, strengths or skills tests. When students are used to practice papers, mock exams and sometimes open book exams, it’s no wonder they can feel ill-prepared for this aspect of the recruitment process.
Employers offering a branded practice environment on their early careers site is likely to have a positive brand, candidate care and diversity benefit in supporting students who may feel alienated from a formal process.
CVs as we know can and have been through digital upgrades over the years with many tools out there to help with reviews, wording, layout, formatting and design. Generative AI has left us all, not just employers, with less trust in the skills and experience that a candidate possesses.
Back in the late 2000s, the Higher Education Achievement Report (HEAR) report launched in the university sector. The idea was to house evidence of non-academic achievements which would demonstrate the skills students have developed during their studies. The challenge has been a static document at the end of a student’s studies (as opposed to all the way through study) and minimal employer recognition.
GTI’s Career Passport is a live record demonstrating students’ career engagement and we see this extending to university validated skills and achievements, micro-credentials and employers being able to engage with students on this basis. At the end of 2023, the Australian Government’s Department for Education stated that they are considering a National Skills Passport.
Traditionally, work experience has focused on
But as students are increasingly finding, the opportunities to do the above are reducing. Be it reduced opportunities from employers (running a placement is harder in hybrid working), cost of living, cost of university and or balancing study and down-time (for the full university experience and wellbeing)
However, there are other ways students can develop skills, explore different sectors and better understand where they may want to focus their attention when it comes to which roles and programmes to apply to. These include -
Each of the above if well top and tailed with marketing, data and communication plans, can provide employers not only with a warm and relevant talent pool pre-live but also create an army of ambassadors who talk about their experience.
We are founder partners of Institute of Experiential and Skills Based Learning (IESBL) which publishes a regular blog. More details can be found here.
Two factors are that could be a cause for concern for employers are:
Salary and benefits on starting has now become the most important factors for students when considering an employer. 23% of respondents in Cibyl’s Graduate Survey cite this as their number one factor.
Post-pandemic, in both our School Leaver and Graduate Cibyl surveys, we saw a rise in preferences towards careers in Sciences, R&D and Healthcare.
The sectors now most popular amongst students are Financial Services, Accounting, Engineering and Consultancy. Unsurprisingly, these are reverting back to pre-pandemic popularity and are closely linked to the best paid starting salaries for graduates and school leavers. In fact, salaries expectation for graduates is now at an all-time high of £33,500, an increase of over 10% on 2022s data.
The cost of living and cost of higher education are likely to be leading reasons.
Salary is perhaps linked to the increase in offer rejection, reneges, and ghosting issues that we are seeing.
The ISE data shows that there’s been large increase in the percentage of employers hiring into different occupations. Comparing to 2022s data, we can see by 2023, the below occupations were growing in demand by considerable amounts:
Graduates:
School Leavers:
Employers must now consider how increased non-sector competition is affecting how they position their brand. Non-synonymous brands must work much harder given the perception still by students of occupation and sector alignment – when we know this is not true. So, in essence, although demand is diversifying, students on the supply side may not be. Yet.
This is a great opportunity for employers to really work on becoming more synonymous with the roles and opportunities their sector previously to date, hasn’t been.
Cost-of-living and education could lead employers to reconsider their regional hiring strategies and how they attract talent locally. If less students can move away for university and less able to support themselves financially straight after graduation, employers are thinking more about how data and geo-targeting methods can be used to pinpoint who is likely to go where after education.
We have seen employers decentralise their London-based hiring into regional hiring post-pandemic with a rise in hybrid and remote working. Meanwhile, students are still statistically drawn to London, and so more work will be needed to be done by employers to change perceptions and perhaps be more present locally. This could mean more strategically targeted campus engagement by location as opposed to institutions or course.
Given that most non-Russell Group universities are made up proportionately by less low socio-economic background students, attended by more locally residing students and see more students stay in the local areas post-study. So, for employers based near these universities, they could really reap the rewards of this on many fronts.
Of course, no future of early careers discussion would be complete with a final word on AI.
Breakfast News in September covered overed this topic in detail and the write-up is here.
As an update, employers may increasingly be split into two camps.
And will we see the rise of the early in career coach-like, AI-agents. Assisting new hires with feedback, nudges and encouragement as they learn the how and the what of the working word. Especially as more experienced people are more remote and less accessible to learn from, than prior to the pandemic.
Might these AI-coaches might even combine performance data with biomedical data to show fatigue, blood sugar levels and more - to boost productivity and improve health and wellbeing. A future where workforces are assisted, rather than replaced, by AI.
Check out this video from Tristan in GTI’s Data Lab to see what this might look like.
.png "Breakfast News December 2023 slide deck")
Click to view
How the world's population is changing
Early Talent to Total Talent
Top 10 long term trends in early careers
Communicating with tomorrow’s youth
Emerging job titles - what is the data telling us?
Engaging the next generation
The future is global
A Futurologist @ The Anthologist
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